Science Is Doing Something About The Weather

The Tampa Tribune

August 27, 2004

By Stuart Bean

Hurricane Charley's devastating winds took forecasters and many Floridians by surprise. The storm reminded us all how shaky a science it is to predict a storm's intensity and path.

With so much media focus on Tampa and St. Petersburg, the originally projected bull's eye, many residents in southwest and Central Florida were caught unprepared. The hurricane, growing quickly from Category 2 to Category 4, left more than two dozen Floridians dead and disrupted the lives of thousands--among them 21,000 households that have already been approved for more than $53 million in federal disaster aid.

Weather damage costs more than $11 billion each year in the United States, to say nothing of the lives lost. According to the National Weather Service, about 10 percent of the nation's gross domestic product is based on weather-sensitive industries.

Population shifts to costal areas leave us even more vulnerable to troical storm and hurricane damage.

So, what are we doing about the weather and how can we help save lives?

The National Weather Service relies on five satellites and 141 Doppler radar stations to provide continuous wind, humidty and rainfall data. In 2003, the service activated its most powerful weather-forecasting supercomputer to date. This extends the government's ability to forecast hurricanes from three days to five days in advance, giving businesses, government agencies and citzens crucial extra time to prepare for violent storms.

Until now, computers were a weak match for the weather, whose complexities taxed the most sophisticated, most powerful data-processing systems. New technologies may help in our battle against rampaging storms.

A supercomputer is in development at the University of California at Irvine that will predict the impact of a variety of stresses on the earth. Among the questions to be analyzed: How do global warming, man made pollutants, polar ice movements and chemical cycles affect the earth and its inhabitants?

The National Science Foundation and other national climate modeling efforts will use the results of the research. We may never control the weather, but a broader understanding of climate may help us better manage those things that influence it.

That's the big picture, but for the day-to-day job of accurate weather forecasting, a group of universities led by the University of Massachusetts at Amherst is developing an innovative network of weather-forecasting installations. An array of low-power radars will be mounted on cellular communications towersd and linked to a computer grid powerful enough to read patterns too complex for today's systems. The radars will be able to track events close to the ground, greatly increasing the opportunities to catch disturbances in time to warm people that something's brewing.

The Human Component.

Focusing on weather itself is important, but it is also vital to focus on how people can prepare for and react to natural disasters. The Institute for Business and Home Safety has teamed up with scientists from the University of Florida, Clemson University and Florida International University to research one elusive piece of meterorological data: the wind speed at the center of a hurricane.

To do this, they deploy 30-foot steel towers in the path of the hurricane with instruments to measure wind speed, humidity and other data. The towers were designed to withstand winds up to 200 mph, and their computers are encased in armored waterproof boxes.

The findings can reveal how well windows, roofs and walls stand up to winds. If winds turn out to be weaker than originally thought yet cause damage to houses, that indicates the building codes need to be strengthened. Or if the winds are stronger than thought and houses stand up to them, building codes could be too strict.

Of course, all the technology in the world won't do a thing if we don't all take responsibility for our own safety. Individuals and families should have a plan for natural disasters or crises, and businesses should commit to having emergency plans and practicing how their organization can recover from unplanned interruptions.

Can the effects of exteme weather be eliminated? Of course not, But individual and corporate vigilance, combined with advances in technology, can help us recover and provide continuity in our lives.

(CHART) Hurricane Response

More than two-thirds of 222 Tampa residents living in a mandatory evacuation zone sought safer ground during Hurricane Charley. Even more would leave under similar circumstances in the future.

Did you evacuate during Hurricane Charley?

Yes: 68 percent

No: 31 percent

Would you evacuate in the future if a similar storm hit?

Yes: 74 percent

No: 22 percent

+/- 6.3%

The poll is conducted by Survey USA in partnership with The Tampa Tribune and WFLA News Channel 8. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.3 percentage points.